Thursday, January 24, 2008

Winning percentages for favorites


I saw a comment today on a greyhound handicapping forum noting that 35% of the betting favorites go on to win the race. Based on my experience, I think that number is high. Back in the old days (1980s), it varied from track to track but usually hovered between 20% and 25%. I could be wrong, but I don't remember it being over 30% anywhere at any time.

So, for the record, I will keep track of all the racing cards I play for a while (until 100 sample races have been run). After a few weeks or a month, I will do it again. If the results are inconclusive, I will do it again in the Spring. Note: Only full 8-dog races are included in this list.

Raynham, Massachusetts
Thursday, 01/24/08 Afternoon Charts

Race 1:Dutch Drummer #6 1.70 Closed For Place (2nd)
Race 2:Kiowa Letigation #1 1.70 Set Pace, Showed Mtk (3rd)
Race 3: 7-dog race
Race 4:Dutch Dixon #7 1.90 Cutoff, Bmpd, Up Shw (3rd)
Race 5:Starz Pirate #8 1.70 Bad Step 1st, Ofst'd (6th)
Race 6:Willy Fix It #8 0.70 Fell, dnf (8th)
Race 7:Sweet Arrival #8 3.20 Frcd Wd 1st, Up Plce (2nd)
Race 8: 7-dog race
Race 9:Sugar Doll #1 3.20 Outfinished Inside (3rd)
Race 10:Oneco Avalon #1 3.10 Held Show Inside (3rd)
Race 11:Little Gem #3 2.80 Closing Threat Mdtrk (3rd)
Race 12:Delightem #8 2.40 Good Effort (3rd)
Race 13:Pete's Sweet Sue #1 2.30 Led Every Step Insde (won)
Race 14:Sol Logan #8 2.20 Even Effort (4th)
Race 15:Kiowa Lottery #2 2.40 Second Effort Inside (6th)

Friday, 01/25/08 Afternoon Charts
Race 1:Pjs Play Action #2 1.90 Up For Place (2nd)
Race 2:Bartley O'Shea #6 0.60 Always On Top Midtrk (won)
Race 3: 6-dog race
Race 4:Drivenby Jackson #5 2.90 Solid Effort Outside (3rd)
Race 5:Cold B Camway #2 2.60 Led The Way Inside (won)
Race 6:Rocco Slammer #1 1.90 Crwd 1st & Ent Bkstr (6th)
Race 7:Exceptional Trent #1 1.40 Sme Wd 1st, Almst Up (2nd)
Race 8:Atomic Matter #4 1.70 Blkd & Col'd 1st Trn (4th)
Race 9:Driven By Fate #5 1.90 Cutoff 1st, Gaining (4th)
Race 10:R's Luckylink #1 2.40 Drew Clear In Strtch (won)
Race 11:Daring Oboe #4 1.30 Crwd Erly, Almost Up (2nd)
Race 12:Casey's Boy #1 3.00 Showed The Way (won)
Race 13: 7-dog race
Race 14:Starz Danger #4 2.60 Almost Up Inside (2nd)
Race 15:Pat C Skylark #2 2.80 Gained For Place (2nd)

Friday, 01/25/08 Evening Charts
Race 1:AE's Seemewin #1 1.00 Settled For Show Ins (3rd)
Race 2:Bristow Glory #1 3.00 Held Place Inside (2nd)
Race 3:Lantana #1 1.30 Padded Lead Inside (won)
Race 4:Starz Kirby #3 1.00 No Room Break (6th)
Race 5:Becky's AR #1 2.00 Drove To Place Ins (2nd)
Race 6:Kenton Krime #8 2.60 Stretch Fade Inside (3rd)
Race 7:Gretchin Betchin #8 3.20 Pressing Show Inside (4th)
Race 8:Kenton Rafi #3 1.40 Nipped At Wire Ins (2nd)
Race 9:Silencersrevenge #8 0.50 Reclaimed Show Mdtk (3rd)
Race 10:Designem #1 2.30 Wide 1st Trn Closing (3rd)
Race 11:Carney #3 1.60 Bumped 1st Driving (2nd)
Race 12:Sanjak Robert #1 1.60 Weakened Midtrack (5th)
Race 13:Ucme El Diablo #8 1.60 Forced Pace Midtrack (2nd)
Race 14:Royal Reverie #1 1.00 Up For Place Mdtrk (2nd)

Saturday, 01/26/08 Afternoon Charts
Race 1:Bugtussle Bea #4 1.90 Cutoff Erly, Gaining (6th)
Race 2:Starz Jangle #1 2.90 Nearest Threat (2nd)
Race 3:Boarding Pass #3 1.50 Pressing Winner Ins (2nd)
Race 4:Fuzzys Rodeo #4 2.90 Shutoff, Blkd, Gaind (5th)
Race 5:Carolina Java #8 3.00 Held Safe Lead (won)
Race 6:On Reflection #8 2.60 Up Late Midtrack (won)
Race 7:Pat C Clement #8 0.80 Best Of Rest (2nd)
Race 8:Little Rascal #2 2.50 All Alone Inside (won)
Race 9:King's Choice #1 1.90 Forced The Pace (3rd)
Race 10:Crystal B Lucy #1 1.60 Held Short Lead (won)
Race 11:Dutch Kermin #4 2.80 Outnodded At Wire (2nd)
Race 12:Aprazel #8 2.80 Trbl 1st Trn, Drivng (5th)
Race 13:Cajun Chief #8 2.30 Blkd 1st Tn, Up Show (3rd)
Race 14:Fuzzys Snowman #7 2.30 Closed For Show Mdtk (3rd)
Race 15:Sea Hero #1 1.80 Enough Left Inside (won)

Saturday, 01/26/08 Evening Charts
Race 1: 7-dog race
Race 2:Bethany #5 2.90 Box To Wire Midtrack (won)
Race 3:Dk Sugar N Spice #5 2.00 In The Hunt Inside (4th)
Race 4:Intricate Fisk #1 2.20 Set Pace Showed (3rd)
Race 5:Starz Hank #2 2.20 Just Missed Midtrack (2nd)
Race 6:Dutch Thyme #5 2.50 Bmpd Crtn Trn Coll'd(6th)
Race 7:Blazing Wes #2 1.00 Stretch Rush Mdtrk (2nd)
Race 8:Angel Terri #8 1.10 Good Try Inside (2nd)
Race 9:Djays Playboy #8 3.20 Up At Wire Midtrack (won)
Race 10:Baddest Boots #6 2.00 Belated Gain Inside (5th)
Race 11:Jain't It Fozzy #1 2.20 Closing Fast Outside (2nd)
Race 12:Sol Lobby #1 3.40 Ran Down Leader Mtk (won)
Race 13:Rollover Ronee #1 2.10 Up For Place Mdtrk (2nd)
Race 14:Toots Energizer #1 2.20 Late Fade Midtrack (4th)

Sunday, 01/27/08 Afternoon Charts
Race 1:Bailey's Alonso #6 2.80 Never Close Inside (6th)
Race 2:Starz Tamatha #3 2.00 Never Prominent (7th)
Race 3:Starz Tammy #6 1.60 Bumped Wide 1st Turn (6th)
Race 4:Bushwacker Rocky #3 1.80 Gaining Ground Mdtk (4th)
Race 5:RA's Sarah B #5 1.80 Bmpd Wd 1st Collided (6th)
Race 6:Dutch Charmayne #8 2.70 Closing Midtrack (3rd)
Race 7:Pat C Air Blitz #3 1.00 Closing Midtrack (4th)
Race 8:Shoeshine Suzie #4 1.10 Split Leaders Str (won)
Race 9:Flying Detroit #3 3.00 Up For Place Mdtrk (2nd)
Race 10:Starz Shirley #1 2.30 Steady Gain Inside (4th)
Race 11:Dutch Dynamo #7 1.50 Took Charge In Str (won)
Race 12:Tony Garea #1 1.80 Best Of Rest Inside (2nd)
Race 13:Starz Classic #1 2.30 Drove To Place Ins (2nd)
Race 14: Dead Heat for win

Monday, 01/28/08 Afternoon Charts
Race 1:Pat C Sprocket #7 2.10 Held Tight Inside (won)
Race 2:Dutch Oscar #4 2.30 Blocked 1st Turn (8th)
Race 3:Oneco Avalon #8 2.30 Led Every Step Insde (won)
Race 4:Sol Logan #2 2.80 Forced The Pace Ins (4th)
Race 5:Starz Pirate #2 0.70 Strong Finish Inside (won)
Race 6:Junipur #2 2.70 Got Lead, Held (won)
Race 7:Mesa Gillette #8 1.70 Frcd Sme Wde 1st Trn (6th)
Race 8:BottledLightning #3 1.50 Factor Thruout Insde (4th)
Race 9:Dutch Drummer #5 2.30 Up At Wire (won)
Race 10:Kiowa Dream Date #8 1.90 Led Erly, Chased Mtk (2nd)
Race 11:Gotcha Cinnamon #1 2.80 Led Erly, Chased Ins (2nd)
Race 12:Emerald Tweet #3 3.20 Good Effort Inside (3rd)
Race 13:Silver Sand #1 1.70 Held Tight Inside (won)
Race 14:Front Page Queen #8 0.80 Led Erly, Almst Back (2nd)
Race 15:Ucme Passions #1 1.80 In A Romp Inside (won)

Wednesday, 01/30/08 Afternoon Charts
Race 1:Winter Cassia #1 1.30 Was Close Early Ins (5th)
Race 2:Kiowa Spaceghost #1 0.70 All Alone Inside (won)
Race 3:Kiowa Mon Money #3 2.30 Cutoff After Break (7th)
Race 4:Starz Kirby #5 0.80 Stretch Control (won)
END OF SAMPLE

Races: 100; Won: 25; Place/Quin: 53; Show/Trif: 71; Super: 82; Out: 18; Win Pct: 25%; Trifecta Percentage: 71%

Note: Of the 75 races NOT won by the betting favorite, 18 were won by the second choice, 16 by the third choice, 19 by the fourth choice, 9 by the fifth choice, 3 by the sixth choice, 6 by the seventh choice, and 4 by the longest shot on the board.

'Hope this is helpful,
Frannie

1 comment:

Rick said...

Over the long run you will find that favorites win 20% to 25% of the races - the 33% figure is the average for Horse Racing.