Say what? Having trouble sleeping?

First of all, on the subject of favorites at the greyhound track, I found a study that evaluated 4,723 greyhound races and found that the favorites win 22.3% of the time. Yes, really.

Now, why such a study and by whom? Here's the link. See for yourself

Actually, there's some really good information in there for the serious handicapper if you wish to mine for it. The bottom line: Favorites in greyhound racing are overbet and longshots are underbet.

Or, if you wish, you can sleep on it.

Frannie

P.S. Here's an older similar study from NC (2000).

Winning percentages for favorites

I saw a comment today on a greyhound handicapping forum noting that 35% of the betting favorites go on to win the race. Based on my experience, I think that number is high. Back in the old days (1980s), it varied from track to track but usually hovered between 20% and 25%. I could be wrong, but I don't remember it being over 30% anywhere at any time.

So, for the record, I will keep track of all the racing cards I play for a while (until 100 sample races have been run). After a few weeks or a month, I will do it again. If the results are inconclusive, I will do it again in the Spring. Note: Only full 8-dog races are included in this list.

Raynham, Massachusetts
Thursday, 01/24/08 Afternoon Charts
Race 1:Dutch Drummer #6 1.70 Closed For Place (2nd)
Race 2:Kiowa Letigation #1 1.70 Set Pace, Showed Mtk (3rd)
Race 3: 7-dog race
Race 4:Dutch Dixon #7 1.90 Cutoff, Bmpd, Up Shw (3rd)
Race 5:Starz Pirate #8 1.70 Bad Step 1st, Ofst'd (6th)
Race 6:Willy Fix It #8 0.70 Fell, dnf (8th)
Race 7:Sweet Arrival #8 3.20 Frcd Wd 1st, Up Plce (2nd)
Race 8: 7-dog race
Race 9:Sugar Doll #1 3.20 Outfinished Inside (3rd)
Race 10:Oneco Avalon #1 3.10 Held Show Inside (3rd)
Race 11:Little Gem #3 2.80 Closing Threat Mdtrk (3rd)
Race 12:Delightem #8 2.40 Good Effort (3rd)
Race 13:Pete's Sweet Sue #1 2.30 Led Every Step Insde (won)
Race 14:Sol Logan #8 2.20 Even Effort (4th)
Race 15:Kiowa Lottery #2 2.40 Second Effort Inside (6th)

Friday, 01/25/08 Afternoon Charts
Race 1:Pjs Play Action #2 1.90 Up For Place (2nd)
Race 2:Bartley O'Shea #6 0.60 Always On Top Midtrk (won)
Race 3: 6-dog race
Race 4:Drivenby Jackson #5 2.90 Solid Effort Outside (3rd)
Race 5:Cold B Camway #2 2.60 Led The Way Inside (won)
Race 6:Rocco Slammer #1 1.90 Crwd 1st & Ent Bkstr (6th)
Race 7:Exceptional Trent #1 1.40 Sme Wd 1st, Almst Up (2nd)
Race 8:Atomic Matter #4 1.70 Blkd & Col'd 1st Trn (4th)
Race 9:Driven By Fate #5 1.90 Cutoff 1st, Gaining (4th)
Race 10:R's Luckylink #1 2.40 Drew Clear In Strtch (won)
Race 11:Daring Oboe #4 1.30 Crwd Erly, Almost Up (2nd)
Race 12:Casey's Boy #1 3.00 Showed The Way (won)
Race 13: 7-dog race
Race 14:Starz Danger #4 2.60 Almost Up Inside (2nd)
Race 15:Pat C Skylark #2 2.80 Gained For Place (2nd)

Friday, 01/25/08 Evening Charts
Race 1:AE's Seemewin #1 1.00 Settled For Show Ins (3rd)
Race 2:Bristow Glory #1 3.00 Held Place Inside (2nd)
Race 3:Lantana #1 1.30 Padded Lead Inside (won)
Race 4:Starz Kirby #3 1.00 No Room Break (6th)
Race 5:Becky's AR #1 2.00 Drove To Place Ins (2nd)
Race 6:Kenton Krime #8 2.60 Stretch Fade Inside (3rd)
Race 7:Gretchin Betchin #8 3.20 Pressing Show Inside (4th)
Race 8:Kenton Rafi #3 1.40 Nipped At Wire Ins (2nd)
Race 9:Silencersrevenge #8 0.50 Reclaimed Show Mdtk (3rd)
Race 10:Designem #1 2.30 Wide 1st Trn Closing (3rd)
Race 11:Carney #3 1.60 Bumped 1st Driving (2nd)
Race 12:Sanjak Robert #1 1.60 Weakened Midtrack (5th)
Race 13:Ucme El Diablo #8 1.60 Forced Pace Midtrack (2nd)
Race 14:Royal Reverie #1 1.00 Up For Place Mdtrk (2nd)

Saturday, 01/26/08 Afternoon Charts
Race 1:Bugtussle Bea #4 1.90 Cutoff Erly, Gaining (6th)
Race 2:Starz Jangle #1 2.90 Nearest Threat (2nd)
Race 3:Boarding Pass #3 1.50 Pressing Winner Ins (2nd)
Race 4:Fuzzys Rodeo #4 2.90 Shutoff, Blkd, Gaind (5th)
Race 5:Carolina Java #8 3.00 Held Safe Lead (won)
Race 6:On Reflection #8 2.60 Up Late Midtrack (won)
Race 7:Pat C Clement #8 0.80 Best Of Rest (2nd)
Race 8:Little Rascal #2 2.50 All Alone Inside (won)
Race 9:King's Choice #1 1.90 Forced The Pace (3rd)
Race 10:Crystal B Lucy #1 1.60 Held Short Lead (won)
Race 11:Dutch Kermin #4 2.80 Outnodded At Wire (2nd)
Race 12:Aprazel #8 2.80 Trbl 1st Trn, Drivng (5th)
Race 13:Cajun Chief #8 2.30 Blkd 1st Tn, Up Show (3rd)
Race 14:Fuzzys Snowman #7 2.30 Closed For Show Mdtk (3rd)
Race 15:Sea Hero #1 1.80 Enough Left Inside (won)

Saturday, 01/26/08 Evening Charts
Race 1: 7-dog race
Race 2:Bethany #5 2.90 Box To Wire Midtrack (won)
Race 3:Dk Sugar N Spice #5 2.00 In The Hunt Inside (4th)
Race 4:Intricate Fisk #1 2.20 Set Pace Showed (3rd)
Race 5:Starz Hank #2 2.20 Just Missed Midtrack (2nd)
Race 6:Dutch Thyme #5 2.50 Bmpd Crtn Trn Coll'd(6th)
Race 7:Blazing Wes #2 1.00 Stretch Rush Mdtrk (2nd)
Race 8:Angel Terri #8 1.10 Good Try Inside (2nd)
Race 9:Djays Playboy #8 3.20 Up At Wire Midtrack (won)
Race 10:Baddest Boots #6 2.00 Belated Gain Inside (5th)
Race 11:Jain't It Fozzy #1 2.20 Closing Fast Outside (2nd)
Race 12:Sol Lobby #1 3.40 Ran Down Leader Mtk (won)
Race 13:Rollover Ronee #1 2.10 Up For Place Mdtrk (2nd)
Race 14:Toots Energizer #1 2.20 Late Fade Midtrack (4th)

Sunday, 01/27/08 Afternoon Charts
Race 1:Bailey's Alonso #6 2.80 Never Close Inside (6th)
Race 2:Starz Tamatha #3 2.00 Never Prominent (7th)
Race 3:Starz Tammy #6 1.60 Bumped Wide 1st Turn (6th)
Race 4:Bushwacker Rocky #3 1.80 Gaining Ground Mdtk (4th)
Race 5:RA's Sarah B #5 1.80 Bmpd Wd 1st Collided (6th)
Race 6:Dutch Charmayne #8 2.70 Closing Midtrack (3rd)
Race 7:Pat C Air Blitz #3 1.00 Closing Midtrack (4th)
Race 8:Shoeshine Suzie #4 1.10 Split Leaders Str (won)
Race 9:Flying Detroit #3 3.00 Up For Place Mdtrk (2nd)
Race 10:Starz Shirley #1 2.30 Steady Gain Inside (4th)
Race 11:Dutch Dynamo #7 1.50 Took Charge In Str (won)
Race 12:Tony Garea #1 1.80 Best Of Rest Inside (2nd)
Race 13:Starz Classic #1 2.30 Drove To Place Ins (2nd)
Race 14: Dead Heat for win

Monday, 01/28/08 Afternoon Charts
Race 1:Pat C Sprocket #7 2.10 Held Tight Inside (won)
Race 2:Dutch Oscar #4 2.30 Blocked 1st Turn (8th)
Race 3:Oneco Avalon #8 2.30 Led Every Step Insde (won)
Race 4:Sol Logan #2 2.80 Forced The Pace Ins (4th)
Race 5:Starz Pirate #2 0.70 Strong Finish Inside (won)
Race 6:Junipur #2 2.70 Got Lead, Held (won)
Race 7:Mesa Gillette #8 1.70 Frcd Sme Wde 1st Trn (6th)
Race 8:BottledLightning #3 1.50 Factor Thruout Insde (4th)
Race 9:Dutch Drummer #5 2.30 Up At Wire (won)
Race 10:Kiowa Dream Date #8 1.90 Led Erly, Chased Mtk (2nd)
Race 11:Gotcha Cinnamon #1 2.80 Led Erly, Chased Ins (2nd)
Race 12:Emerald Tweet #3 3.20 Good Effort Inside (3rd)
Race 13:Silver Sand #1 1.70 Held Tight Inside (won)
Race 14:Front Page Queen #8 0.80 Led Erly, Almst Back (2nd)
Race 15:Ucme Passions #1 1.80 In A Romp Inside (won)

Wednesday, 01/30/08 Afternoon Charts
Race 1:Winter Cassia #1 1.30 Was Close Early Ins (5th)
Race 2:Kiowa Spaceghost #1 0.70 All Alone Inside (won)
Race 3:Kiowa Mon Money #3 2.30 Cutoff After Break (7th)
Race 4:Starz Kirby #5 0.80 Stretch Control (won)
END OF SAMPLE

Races: 100; Won: 25; Place/Quin: 53; Show/Trif: 71; Super: 82; Out: 18; Win Pct: 25%; Trifecta Percentage: 71%

Note: Of the 75 races NOT won by the betting favorite, 18 were won by the second choice, 16 by the third choice, 19 by the fourth choice, 9 by the fifth choice, 3 by the sixth choice, 6 by the seventh choice, and 4 by the longest shot on the board.

'Hope this is helpful,
Frannie